Derived-demand bottlenecks

How it happened. After Boeing (Mar 2022) and Western buyers cut off Russian titanium, the narrowbody engine ramp (GE guided LEAP deliveries +15-20% for 2025) left scarce qualified titanium and nickel-alloy capacity. ATI's commercial jet-engine sales rose to 37% of revenue, A&D sales grew 23% in Q1 2025 (stock +14.5% on May 1, 2025), Airbus more than doubled its contracted titanium share with ATI (May 2025), and ATI raised 2025 EPS guidance to $3.15-3.21 in Oct 2025.

Timeline

• 2022-03-07 · Boeing halts Russian titanium: Boeing suspended purchases of Russian titanium; VSMPO-Avisma had supplied about a third of its titanium. (source)
• 2025-01-23 · GE guides LEAP +15-20%: GE Aerospace guided 2025 LEAP engine deliveries up 15-20% (after 1,407 in 2024); actual 2025 LEAP deliveries rose 28%. (source)
• 2025-02-04 · 2025 EBITDA guide $800-840M: ATI's Q4 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $210M beat its $181-191M guidance; it guided 2025 EBITDA to $800-840M, rising every quarter, and the stock rose 9.9% (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-05-01 · A&D sales +23%: Q1 2025 A&D sales rose 23% to $754M (66% of sales), jet engines reached 37% of sales and adjusted EPS rose to $0.72 from $0.48; the stock rose 14.5% (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-05-28 · Airbus titanium deal doubles: ATI signed a multi-year guaranteed-share agreement with Airbus for titanium plate, sheet and billet, more than doubling its prior support of Airbus. (source)
• 2025-10-28 · EPS guide raised again: ATI raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.15-3.21 from $2.90-3.07; ~60% of revenue now comes from commercial jet engines, and the stock rose as much as 12.9%. (source)

How it happened. Hyperscalers guided sharply higher AI capex (Microsoft $80B FY25, Meta $60-65B for 2025), and the resulting US load growth drove a gas-turbine order wave (GE Vernova ~20 GW of 2024 gas orders plus 9 GW of slot reservations). New gas plants need emissions-control systems, so CECO's orders rose 57% then 95% y/y, it booked its largest-ever power-generation order, backlog hit a record $688M (+76%), and 2025 revenue guidance was raised to $725-775M (~35% growth).

Timeline

• 2025-01-03 · Microsoft $80B AI capex: Microsoft said it would spend about $80B in FY2025 on AI-enabled data centers, more than half in the US. (source)
• 2025-01-22 · GE Vernova gas orders double: GE Vernova booked ~20 GW of gas-turbine orders in 2024 (2x the prior year) plus 9 GW of slot reservations tied partly to hyperscaler data-center load. (source)
• 2025-04-29 · Record Q1, backlog >$600M: Q1 2025 orders were $227.9M (+57%), backlog a record $602M (+55%) and revenue $176.7M (+40%), with power generation and gas infrastructure cited. (source)
• 2025-07-29 · Largest order, guide up, +16%: Q2 orders were $274.1M (+95%) including CECO's largest-ever power-generation emissions order, backlog was $688M (+76%) and 2025 revenue guidance rose to $725-775M; the stock rose ~15.9% intraday. (source)
• 2025-10-28 · Backlog $720M, 2026 guide: Q3 orders were $232.9M (+44%), backlog $719.6M (+64%) and the initial 2026 revenue outlook $850-950M, with more large power-generation orders expected. (source)

How it happened. Microsoft (~$80B for FY25, Jan 3, 2025), Alphabet (~$75B, Feb 4) and other hyperscalers set 2025 AI data-center budgets that needed mass-capacity nearline storage. HDD makers had not added unit capacity after the 2023 downturn, so pricing held and Seagate sold on build-to-order terms. Revenue grew ~30% YoY in the March and June 2025 quarters, and non-GAAP gross margin rose from 26.1% (Mar 2024 quarter) to 36.2% (Mar 2025) and a record 40.1% (Sept 2025). Lead times for 32TB+ drives later exceeded 52 weeks.

Timeline

• 2025-01-03 · Microsoft: $80B AI capex: Microsoft said it would invest about $80B in FY2025 to build AI-enabled data centers. (source)
• 2025-01-21 · Decade-high margin, HAMR ramp: Fiscal Q2 revenue was $2.33B and non-GAAP gross margin 35.5% (a decade high), nearline revenue nearly doubled YoY, and Mozaic HAMR began ramping to the lead cloud customer; the stock rose 6.8% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-02-04 · Alphabet: $75B capex: Alphabet said it expected to invest about $75B in capital expenditures in 2025. (source)
• 2025-04-29 · Revenue +31%, margin 36%: Fiscal Q3 revenue rose 31% to $2.16B and non-GAAP gross margin to 36.2% from 26.1%, citing a 'healthy supply/demand environment'; the stock rose 11.6% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-07-29 · Record margin, FY rev +39%: Fiscal Q4 revenue rose 30% to $2.44B with a record 37.9% non-GAAP gross margin; FY25 revenue rose 39% to $9.10B and non-GAAP EPS to $8.10 from $1.29. (source)
• 2025-10-28 · Record 40% margin; HAMR x5: Fiscal Q1 FY26 revenue rose 21% to $2.63B with a record 40.1% non-GAAP gross margin, and HAMR was qualified at five large cloud customers; the stock rose 19.1% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)

How it happened. Hyperscaler AI capex (Microsoft ~$80B for FY25, Alphabet $75B raised to $85B, Meta $66-72B) fed demand for accelerators and HBM. SK hynix's HBM passed 40% of its DRAM revenue by Q4 2024, and memory makers and foundries bought more etch and deposition tools, where Lam is strongest. Lam's quarterly revenue rose from $4.38B (Dec 2024) to $5.34B (Dec 2025), for ~$20.6B in calendar 2025, with non-GAAP gross margin peaking at a record ~50.6%.

Timeline

• 2025-01-03 · Microsoft: $80B AI capex: Microsoft planned about $80B of FY2025 investment in AI data centers. (source)
• 2025-01-23 · HBM >40% of Hynix DRAM: SK hynix said HBM exceeded 40% of Q4 2024 DRAM revenue, FY24 revenue doubled to 66.2T won, and it planned to expand HBM3E supply and develop HBM4. (source)
• 2025-02-04 · Alphabet: $75B capex: Alphabet guided 2025 capex to about $75B. (source)
• 2025-04-23 · Beat and $5.0B guide: March-quarter revenue rose 8% sequentially to $4.72B with 49.0% gross margin, and the June quarter was guided to $5.0B despite tariffs; the stock rose 5.1% and then 6.2% (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-07-30 · Record $5.17B, 50% margin: June-quarter revenue reached $5.17B with a 50.3% non-GAAP gross margin; the CEO cited deposition and etch 'criticality intensifying in the AI era', and the September quarter was guided to $5.2B. (source)
• 2026-01-28 · CY25 ~$20.6B; guide $5.7B: December-quarter revenue was $5.34B, bringing calendar 2025 to ~$20.6B (from quarterly releases), and the March 2026 quarter was guided to $5.7B, the CEO saying 'AI accelerating'. (source)

How it happened. Hyperscalers guided 2025 AI capex sharply higher (Microsoft ~$80B, Meta $60-65B, Jan 2025), and AI racks need high-density server power supplies. Advanced Energy's Data Center Computing revenue hit records, doubling y/y in Q1 2025 and rising from $73M to $141.6M in Q2, and grew 107% to $587M for 2025, lifting non-GAAP EPS 73% to $6.41.

Timeline

• 2025-01-03 · Microsoft $80B AI capex: Microsoft said it would spend about $80B in FY2025 on AI data centers. (source)
• 2025-01-24 · Meta capex $60-65B: Meta guided 2025 capex to $60-65B, up from ~$38-40B in 2024, targeting 1.3M+ GPUs. (source)
• 2025-02-12 · Record data-center quarter: Q4 2024 revenue was $415.4M, above guidance; data-center computing grew 10% q/q to a record on hyperscale demand, and strong demand was expected into 2025. (source)
• 2025-04-30 · Data center revenue doubles: Q1 2025 revenue was $404.6M with data-center computing at a quarterly record, more than double y/y; non-GAAP EPS was $1.23. (source)
• 2025-05 · Shares +5% on Q1 beat: AEIS rose 5.14% premarket after Q1 revenue (+24% y/y) beat estimates by 3.2%. (source)
• 2025-08-05 · DC revenue $141.6M (~2x): Q2 2025 revenue was $441.5M, above guidance; data-center computing revenue was a record $141.6M vs $73.0M a year earlier, on AI demand. (source)
• 2026-02-10 · 2025 DC +107%, EPS +73%: FY2025 revenue was $1.8B (+21%) and data-center computing $587.3M (+107%); non-GAAP EPS rose 73% to $6.41. (source)

How it happened. The same nearline HDD tightness as Seagate: hyperscaler 2025 capex (Alphabet ~$75B in Feb, raised to ~$85B in July; Meta $66-72B) drove demand for high-capacity drives while the HDD oligopoly held unit capacity flat. After the Sandisk spin-off (Feb 2025), pure-play Western Digital's non-GAAP gross margin rose from 30.1% (Mar 2024 quarter) to 40.1% (Mar 2025) and 43.9% (Sept 2025, guided 44-45%). The stock rose about 316% in 2025.

Timeline

• 2025-02-04 · Alphabet: $75B capex: Alphabet guided 2025 capex to about $75B. (source)
• 2025-04-29 · Seagate: rev +31%, tight supply: Seagate reported fiscal Q3 revenue +31% and non-GAAP gross margin of 36.2% (vs 26.1%), citing a healthy supply/demand balance for mass-capacity storage. (source)
• 2025-04-30 · Margin 40%, dividend begins: Fiscal Q3 revenue rose 31% YoY to $2.29B and non-GAAP gross margin to 40.1% from 30.1%; WDC started a dividend and the stock rose 8.0% (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-07-30 · FY revenue +51%, guide up: Fiscal Q4 revenue rose 30% to $2.61B and non-GAAP gross margin to 41.3%; FY25 revenue rose 51% to $9.52B, and Q1 was guided to $2.7B at a 41-42% margin. The stock rose 10.2% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-10-30 · Margin 43.9%, guide 44.5%: Fiscal Q1 FY26 revenue rose 27% to $2.82B with 43.9% non-GAAP gross margin (vs 37.3%); Q2 was guided to $2.9B at 44-45% and the dividend raised 25%. The stock rose 8.7% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)

How it happened. Hyperscalers guided 2025 AI capex sharply higher (Microsoft ~$80B, Meta $60-65B, Jan 2025), and AI data centers need far more chillers and liquid cooling. Modine's fiscal-2025 data-center sales roughly doubled to ~$644M. It then raised FY2026 guidance three times (sales growth from 2-10% to 20-25%), with data-center sales +42% and +78% y/y in the Sep and Dec 2025 quarters and a >$2B data-center revenue target for FY2028.

Timeline

• 2025-01-03 · Microsoft $80B AI capex: Microsoft said it would spend about $80B in FY2025 on AI-enabled data centers. (source)
• 2025-01-24 · Meta capex $60-65B: Meta guided 2025 capex to $60-65B (vs ~$38-40B in 2024), including a 2 GW+ data center. (source)
• 2025-05-20 · FY25 data center sales ~2x: Record FY2025 sales of $2.6B; data-center sales rose ~119% to ~$644M, and management guided data-center growth above 30% for FY2026 on its order book. (source)
• 2025-07-30 · Guidance raised; $2B DC target: FY2026 guidance was raised to 10-15% sales growth and $440-470M adj. EBITDA on data-center demand, with a target near $2B of data-center revenue by FY2028. (source)
• 2025-10-28 · DC +42%, sales guide raised: Data-center sales rose 42% y/y, the FY2026 data-center growth outlook went above 60% and the net-sales guide rose to 15-20%. (source)
• 2026-02-04 · DC +78%, guide raised again: Q3 FY2026 data-center sales rose 78% y/y (+31% q/q as new lines ramped); FY2026 guidance was raised to 20-25% sales growth and $455-475M adj. EBITDA. (source)

How it happened. AI accelerators need HBM: Micron's HBM revenue grew ~50% sequentially (June 2025), SK hynix planned to double HBM volume (July 2025), and Alphabet raised 2025 capex to $85B. Every HBM stack must be probe-tested, and FormFactor was shipping volume probe cards to all three HBM makers by July 2025, bringing record DRAM probe-card revenue. Gross margin recovered from 37.3% (Q2 2025) to 39.8% (Q3) and 42.2% (Q4), and the stock rose 24% on Oct 30, 2025.

Timeline

• 2025-06-25 · Micron HBM +~50% q/q: Micron posted record fiscal Q3 revenue of $9.30B, with HBM revenue up nearly 50% sequentially and data-center revenue more than doubling YoY. (source)
• 2025-07-23 · Alphabet capex to $85B: Alphabet raised its 2025 capex plan to about $85B from $75B, citing cloud and AI demand. (source)
• 2025-07-24 · SK hynix to double HBM: SK hynix posted record Q2 2025 revenue of 22.2T won with a 41% operating margin and planned to double HBM volume YoY, supplying HBM4 on customer demand. (source)
• 2025-07-30 · Shipping to all 3 HBM makers: Q2 revenue rose 14% sequentially to $195.8M on HBM probe cards, now shipping in volume to all three HBM makers, but gross margin fell to 37.3% on HBM ramp costs; the stock fell 17.5% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-10-29 · Record DRAM cards; margin 39.8%: DRAM probe cards hit a record on HBM, gross margin rose 250bp to 39.8%, and Q4 was guided higher; the stock rose 12.5% on the day and 24.2% the next (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2026-02-04 · Record $785M year: FY25 revenue was a record $785.0M; Q4 revenue rose 13.6% YoY to $215.2M with 42.2% gross margin (vs 37.3% in Q2), and Q1 2026 was guided higher; the stock rose 17.2% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)

How it happened. Weak/indirect derived-demand fit. Operation Warp Speed (May 15, 2020) and deals such as Lonza-Moderna (May 1) and HHS reserving $543M of Emergent's CDMO capacity (June 1) absorbed biologics manufacturing capacity. Avid's own releases cite new customers and only 'discussions' about COVID-19 programs, not COVID revenue. Its backlog still grew from a record $65M (Apr 2020) to $120M (Jan 2021), and FY21 revenue guidance rose from $76-81M to $88-91M.

Timeline

• 2020-05-01 · Lonza-Moderna capacity deal: Moderna and Lonza signed a 10-year deal to build mRNA-1273 suites in the US and Switzerland, aiming for up to 1B doses a year. (source)
• 2020-05-15 · Operation Warp Speed launched: HHS named the leaders of Operation Warp Speed, a program to fund at-risk manufacturing capacity for 3-5 vaccine candidates before approval. (source)
• 2020-06-01 · HHS reserves Emergent CDMO capacity: BARDA issued Emergent a ~$628M task order, including ~$542.7M to reserve CDMO capacity for COVID-19 vaccines through 2021. (source)
• 2020-06-30 · Record $65M backlog: Avid reported a record $65M backlog (+41% YoY) and guided FY21 revenue to $76-81M (FY20: $59.7M), citing 'discussions with multiple parties' on COVID-19 programs; the stock rose 8.5% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2020-12-02 · FY21 guidance raised: Q2 FY21 revenue was $21.1M and backlog $67M; FY21 guidance was raised to $84-88M from $76-81M. The stock rose 8.2% on the day and 16.4% the next (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2021-03-08 · Backlog $120M; expansion: Q3 FY21 revenue rose 61% to $21.8M, with $74M of new orders and a record $120M backlog; FY21 guidance went to $88-91M alongside a Myford expansion to up to $270M of annual revenue capacity. (source)

How it happened. EU CO2 rules pushed European electrified-car registrations to a record 230,700 in July 2020 (+131% y/y, 18% share), and the market priced tighter demand for battery-grade lithium even though Livent's Q2 2020 revenue was still down 43%. China lithium carbonate prices rose ~41% in Jan 2021. Livent then reported rising volumes and prices, signed a BMW hydroxide contract (Feb 2021) and raised 2021 guidance to $370-390M revenue and $55-70M adj. EBITDA (Aug 2021).

Timeline

• 2020-08-07 · Q2 2020: demand still weak: Livent's Q2 2020 revenue fell 43% y/y to $64.9M on weak EV-related lithium hydroxide demand, though management called the long-term EV outlook exceptionally strong. (source)
• 2020-08-28 · Europe EV registrations record: JATO reported a record 230,700 electrified-vehicle registrations in Europe in July 2020 (+131% y/y, 18% share), driven by the tougher EU CO2 targets. (source)
• 2021-02-01 · China lithium carbonate +41%: Benchmark reported that China battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 41% in January 2021 to $9,450/t on surging LFP/EV demand; its hydroxide index had not yet moved. (source)
• 2021-02-18 · Q4 volumes, pricing up; BMW deal: Q4 2020 revenue rose 13% q/q to $82.2M on higher volumes and realized prices, and Livent signed a multi-year lithium hydroxide supply deal with BMW. (source)
• 2021-08-06 · Guidance raised, stock +8.6%: Q2 2021 revenue was $102.2M (+57% y/y); 2021 guidance was raised to $370-390M revenue and $55-70M adj. EBITDA on higher lithium prices, and the stock rose about 8.6%. (source)

How it happened. ChatGPT set off a race for GPU capacity: Microsoft committed ~$10B to OpenAI (Jan 2023), and on May 24, 2023 Nvidia guided next-quarter revenue to $11B, 53% above consensus. Enterprises and tier-2 clouds ordered Nvidia-based servers from Dell, whose AI-server backlog reached $2.9B by Feb 2024 and whose stock rose 21% (Sept 1, 2023) and 32% (Mar 1, 2024) on results. The March 2023 knee came before any AI evidence at Dell (Q1 FY24 ISG revenue fell 18%), so the early part of the move is only loosely tied to this chain.

Timeline

• 2023-01-23 · Microsoft's multibillion OpenAI bet: Microsoft announced a multi-year, multibillion-dollar (reported ~$10B) investment in OpenAI, to be served through Azure's AI infrastructure. (source)
• 2023-05-24 · Nvidia guides $11B: Nvidia guided fiscal Q2 revenue to ~$11B, 53% above consensus, on a 'steep increase in demand' for generative AI data-center chips. (source)
• 2023-06-01 · Project Helix; AI server demand: Dell's Q1 FY24 revenue fell 20% to $20.9B, but it cited demand growth in AI-optimized servers and launched Project Helix with Nvidia for on-premises generative AI. (source)
• 2023-08-31 · AI servers drive beat, raise: Dell's Q2 FY24 revenue of $22.9B beat the ~$20.9B estimate, it raised full-year guidance and called the XE9680 AI server its fastest-ramping product ever; the stock rose 21% the next day. (source)
• 2024-02-29 · AI backlog doubles to $2.9B: AI-optimized server orders rose ~40% sequentially and backlog nearly doubled to $2.9B, with $800M shipped in the quarter; the stock rose ~30% on Mar 1, its best day since relisting. (source)

How it happened. The 2023 knee was driven first by Vistra's own Energy Harbor deal ($3.43B, ~4 GW of nuclear, announced Mar 2023) plus the IRA nuclear PTC floor, a company catalyst rather than derived demand. The derived-demand leg came from Dec 2023, when grid planners doubled the 5-year US load-growth forecast (2.6% to 4.7%, +38 GW by 2028, led by data centers), and in Mar 2024, when AWS paid $650M for Talen's nuclear-adjacent data-center campus. That re-rated nuclear/gas generators with spare capacity, and VST was up ~112% YTD by May 2024 while it raised EBITDA expectations.

Timeline

• 2023-03-07 · Energy Harbor $3.43B deal: Vistra agreed to buy Energy Harbor for $3.43B, adding ~4,000 MW of nuclear to create the second-largest competitive US nuclear fleet. (source)
• 2023-12-14 · US load forecast doubles: Grid Strategies reported that grid planners nearly doubled the 5-year US demand-growth forecast from 2.6% to 4.7% (38 GW of peak growth by 2028), led by data centers. (source)
• 2024-03-01 · AWS buys nuclear data campus: Talen sold its 960 MW Cumulus data campus next to the Susquehanna nuclear plant to AWS for $650M, with a 10-year nuclear PPA. (source)
• 2024-05-06 · S&P 500 add, +112% YTD: Vistra was named to the S&P 500 (effective May 8), with the stock already up 111.6% in 2024 on AI data-center power demand. (source)
• 2024-05-08 · Q1 2024: EBITDA outlook raised: Vistra raised Energy Harbor synergy and consolidated EBITDA expectations (2024 ongoing adj. EBITDA midpoint $4.8B ex-PTC). (source)
• 2024-11-07 · Data-center talks at Comanche Peak: Management said PJM/ERCOT load forecasts were trending up and that it was negotiating at multiple sites with data-center operators, including over its 2.4 GW Comanche Peak nuclear plant. (source)

How it happened. Moderate fit. Grid planners nearly doubled their 5-year US load-growth forecast (0.58% to 0.93% a year, Grid Strategies, Dec 2023) because of data centers and new factories. That revived gas-fired plant construction, Argan's core business, and backlog rose from $757M (Jan 2024) to ~$1B (July 2024). Q2 FY25 revenue rose 61% to $227M (stock +34% intraday on Sept 6, 2024), but Argan credited that quarter mainly to renewables. The data-center gas framing is largely forward-looking in 2024; gross margin reached 17.2% by Oct 2024.

Timeline

• 2023-12 · Flat power demand era over: Grid Strategies reported that planners nearly doubled the 5-year US load-growth forecast (0.58% to 0.93% a year; 2028 peak 852 GW vs 835 GW), driven by data centers and manufacturing. (source)
• 2024-04-11 · FY24 results; gas pipeline: FY24 revenue rose 26% to $573.3M and backlog to $757M, and Argan cited new renewable and gas-fired contracts; the stock rose 21.1% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2024-06-06 · Cites data-center power demand: Backlog reached $824M, and Argan tied its pipeline to power demand from data centers, onshoring and EVs, highlighting 24/7 gas-fired generation; the stock rose 10.4% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2024-09-05 · Revenue +61%, backlog ~$1B: Q2 FY25 revenue rose 61% to $227M and backlog to ~$1B (Argan credited renewables); the stock jumped 34% intraday on Sept 6 and closed +26% (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2024-12-05 · Margin 17.2% on gas builds: Q3 FY25 revenue rose 57% to $257M and gross margin to 17.2% from 11.7%, with work on the Trumbull gas-fired combined-cycle plant among the drivers. (source)

How it happened. AI data centers could not get grid power fast enough (the US load-growth forecast doubled in Dec 2023; xAI announced a 150 MW Memphis supercomputer in Jun 2024). Solaris bought Mobile Energy Rentals for $200M in Jul 2024 (153 MW fleet, mostly contracted to an AI computing customer; stock ~+40%). It then scaled to a 500-900 MW data-center JV and a ~1,700 MW fleet by 2027. The May 2024 knee precedes the company-specific catalyst.

Timeline

• 2023-12-14 · US load forecast doubles: Grid planners nearly doubled the 5-year US demand-growth forecast to 4.7% (38 GW by 2028), led by data centers, pointing to generation shortfalls. (source)
• 2024-06-05 · xAI picks Memphis, 150 MW: xAI announced its Colossus supercomputer in Memphis, needing up to 150 MW at full capacity, more than the local grid could supply quickly. (source)
• 2024-07-09 · Buys Mobile Energy Rentals $200M: Solaris agreed to buy MER (153 MW of gas turbines, planned 478 MW by Q3 2025, ~$50M run-rate EBITDA), mostly contracted to a leading AI computing provider; shares jumped about 40%. (source)
• 2024-09-11 · xAI runs on portable turbines: Reports showed xAI powering Colossus with portable gas turbines (e.g., 16 MW units) installed by Solaris while it waited for grid power. (source)
• 2025-02-20 · 500 MW data-center JV: Q4 2024 revenue was $96M (+28% q/q). Solaris signed a 6-year contract for at least 500 MW for a new data center and ordered 700 MW of turbines (~$600M), taking the fleet to ~1,400 MW by H1 2027. (source)
• 2025-04-28 · JV upsized to 900 MW: The data-center contract was upsized to ~900 MW for 7 years and the fleet raised to ~1,700 MW; Q1 2025 revenue was $126M (+31% q/q). (source)

How it happened. AI data-center buildouts (Alphabet raised 2025 capex to $85B and Meta guided $66-72B, both in July 2025) drove 800G/1.6T optical deployments, seen in record results at Lumentum and Coherent (Aug 2025). Viavi's lab and production test equipment for that gear, boosted by the acquired Spirent high-speed Ethernet lines, took revenue growth from +15% (June 2025 quarter) to +25.6% (Sept) and +36.4% (Dec 2025, $369.3M). The stock rose 22% on Oct 30, 2025. Test-equipment demand is one step removed from the component shortage, so this is a moderate fit.

Timeline

• 2025-07-23 · Alphabet capex to $85B: Alphabet raised its 2025 capex plan to about $85B from $75B on cloud and AI demand. (source)
• 2025-07-30 · Meta capex $66-72B: Meta narrowed its 2025 capex outlook to $66-72B, up about $30B YoY. (source)
• 2025-08-07 · Data-center test drives growth: Fiscal Q4 revenue rose 15.3% YoY to $290.5M, with growth accelerated by the data-center ecosystem and aerospace & defense; the stock rose 7.6% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2025-08-12 · Lumentum: AI optics beat: Lumentum's fiscal Q4 revenue of $480.7M topped its raised guidance on AI data-center demand (EMLs, 800G modules), and it targeted $600M+ in quarterly revenue by June 2026. (source)
• 2025-08-13 · Coherent record $1.53B: Coherent posted record fiscal Q4 revenue of $1.53B and FY25 revenue +23% to $5.81B, citing AI data centers as a key growth driver. (source)
• 2025-10-29 · Revenue +25.6%; guide $360-370M: Fiscal Q1 FY26 revenue rose 25.6% to $299.1M and non-GAAP operating margin to 15.7%; Q2 was guided to $360-370M including the Spirent lines, and the stock rose 22.3% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2026-01-28 · Revenue +36%, NSE +46%: Fiscal Q2 FY26 revenue rose 36.4% to $369.3M (NSE segment +45.8%) and non-GAAP operating margin to 19.3%; the stock rose 17.5% the next day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)

How it happened. Weak derived-demand fit: this is WWE (TKO's pre-2023 history) re-rating on the expected bidding for its US TV rights expiring Sept 2019, not an input shortage. WWE's Oct 26, 2017 results (record Q3 OIBDA $40.4M, rights renewals timetabled for May-Sept 2018) sent the stock +13% at the knee; Fox, left focused on live sports and news by the Dec 2017 Disney deal, then paid ~$205M/yr for SmackDown (about 3x the prior fee) and NBCU ~$265M/yr for Raw, together ~$2.35B over five years.

Timeline

• 2017-10-26 · Q3 record; TV renewals timetabled: WWE posted Q3 2017 revenue +14% to $186.4M and record OIBDA of $40.4M, and said it would announce US TV rights plans in May-Sept 2018 (rights expire Sept 30, 2019); the stock rose 13.2% that day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices). (source)
• 2017-12-14 · Disney buys Fox studios: Disney agreed to buy 21st Century Fox's studios and cable assets for $52.4B in stock, leaving a slimmed Fox built on broadcast, news and live sports that would need more live programming. (source)
• 2018-02-08 · Record 2017; rights talks: WWE reported record 2017 results (Q4 revenue +9% to $211.6M, TV revenue +10% to $75.3M) and said it expected to announce new US TV deals between May and Sept 2018. (source)
• 2018-05-21 · Fox SmackDown deal reported: Reports that Fox had agreed to pay ~$205M/yr for five years for SmackDown (about 3x USA's fee) and that NBCU would renew Raw at about 3x; WWE rose 12.5% that day (close-to-close from FMP daily prices) and ~32% over the week. (source)
• 2018-06-26 · Raw renewed with USA: WWE announced a five-year Raw extension with USA Network from Oct 2019 (reported at ~$265M/yr); with Fox, the two deals total ~$2.35B over five years. (source)

How it happened. Weak derived-demand framing at the knee: the mid-2019 rise was mainly a recovery from the 2018 crypto-GPU inventory glut, helped by the Mellanox deal (Mar 2019). The derived-demand leg came later. Hyperscaler capex re-accelerated in H2 2019 (a record ~$32B in Q4 2019), and NVIDIA's data-center revenue went from $726M (Oct 2019 qtr, -8% y/y) to a record $968M (+43%, Jan 2020 qtr) and $1.14B (+80%, Apr 2020 qtr).

Timeline

• 2019-03-11 · Mellanox $6.9B deal announced: NVIDIA agreed to buy Mellanox for $125/share (~$6.9B EV), adding data-center interconnects used by every major cloud provider. (source)
• 2019-08-15 · Q2 FY20 beat, sequential rebound: Revenue of $2.58B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.24 beat the $1.14 consensus on a sequential recovery, and the shares rose about 7% the next day. (source)
• 2019-11-14 · Data center +11% q/q: Q3 FY20 data-center revenue of $726M was -8% y/y but +11% q/q, and gross margin rose to 63.6%. (source)
• 2020-02-13 · Record data center $968M: Q4 FY20 data-center revenue hit a record $968M (+43% y/y) and total revenue was $3.11B (+41%); the shares rose more than 7% the next day. (source)
• 2020-03-24 · Hyperscale capex record Q4 2019: Synergy reported that hyperscale capex topped $32B in Q4 2019, a quarterly record after a strong H2 2019, and that data-center spending rose 11% in 2019. (source)
• 2020-05-21 · First $1B data-center quarter: Q1 FY21 data-center revenue was a record $1.14B (+80% y/y) and total revenue was $3.08B (+39%). (source)

How it happened. Weak derived-demand framing: the 2025 knee mostly reflects TETRA's own results (record deepwater completion fluids, adj. EBITDA margins ~20%) and Arkansas approval of its Evergreen bromine unit (Apr 24, 2025). The bromine plant targets $200-250M of revenue by 2027. The derived-demand element is Eos Energy's zinc-bromide storage ramp, which TETRA supplies with electrolyte and which Eos ties to AI/data-center power demand. As of late 2025 it was still an expected volume jump in early 2026, not realized pricing power.

Timeline

• 2025-02-25 · Guides record H1, Eos ramp: Q4 2024 adj. EBITDA was $22.8M; H1 2025 adj. EBITDA guidance of $55-65M was called near a ten-year high, with a 'material ramp up in Eos electrolyte orders' expected. (source)
• 2025-04-24 · Arkansas approves Evergreen unit: The Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission approved TETRA's Evergreen bromine unit expansion; drilling of production wells was to follow. (source)
• 2025-04-29 · Q1 adj. EBITDA +41% q/q: Q1 2025 revenue was $157M and adj. EBITDA $32.3M (+41% q/q, 20.5% margin); completion fluids had a 35.7% margin. (source)
• 2025-07-29 · Record Q2 EBITDA; bromine target: Q2 adj. EBITDA was $35.9M (20.6% margin), and the bromine plant was guided to $200-250M revenue and $90-115M EBITDA at capacity; the stock fell 1.8% that day. (source)
• 2025-10-28 · Eos volumes ramp early 2026: Q3 completion-fluids revenue rose 39% y/y to $90M; TETRA finished its bulk electrolyte loading system and expects a significant rise in Eos electrolyte volumes in early 2026. (source)

How it happened. Weak derived-demand framing: there is no identifiable outside capex signal or input shortage. DigitalOcean is a GPU/inference cloud buyer, not a bottleneck supplier, and the evidence is its own results. AI ARR grew >160% (Q1 2025) and AI revenue more than doubled for five straight quarters, so revenue growth accelerated from 14% to 18% by Q4 2025. The stock rose 28.8% on the Aug 2025 guidance raise, and $1M+ customer ARR grew 123% to $133M.

Timeline

• 2025-05-06 · AI ARR +160% y/y: Q1 2025 revenue was $211M (+14%, fastest since Q3 2023) with AI ARR growing more than 160% y/y; 2025 revenue guidance was $870-890M. (source)
• 2025-08-05 · AI revenue 2x, stock +29%: Q2 revenue was $218.7M (+13.6%) with AI/ML revenue more than doubling; 2025 guidance was raised to $888-892M, and the stock rose 28.8%. (source)
• 2025-11-05 · Record ARR adds, guide raised: Q3 revenue was $230M (+16%) with record incremental ARR of $44M, $1M+ customer ARR +72% and 2025 revenue guidance raised to $896-897M; the stock rose ~15% that week. (source)
• 2026-02-24 · AI ARR $120M, 2026 +21%: Q4 2025 revenue was $242M (+18%), AI customer ARR $120M (+150%) and $1M+ customer ARR $133M (+123%); 2026 revenue was guided to $1.075-1.105B (~21% growth). (source)