Finicast·CEO-change thesis: what the tests found (as of 2026-09-26)View onlyLog in
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Buy every company whose stock rose by at least the threshold in the month after the CEO change, hold 1-3 years, equal weight across open positions. The first version of this test used only companies still listed, and looked like a winner; adding the companies that were acquired, delisted or went bankrupt reversed it. Beta is 1.1-1.4, so these portfolios took more market risk than the index for less return.

Survivorship bias: the same rule, before and after adding delisted companies

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Total return: strategy vs S&P 500

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CAGR by rule and holding period

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Every backtest, Feb 2020 - Sep 2026 (1,283 CEO changes after quality filters)

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Average and median excess return per trade vs the S&P 500

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