Finicast

Finicast·CEO-change thesis: what the tests found (as of 2026-09-26)View only

The thesis and the verdict6
Backtests7
Against matched peers5
Hockey-stick shapes6
New-CEO pay4
Pre-registered test8

Backtests, Feb 2020 - Sep 2026 (survivorship-free)
What survivorship bias did to the first backtest (up 10%+ rule, hold 1 year)
CEO-change companies minus matched controls
New-CEO pay terms: event minus matched controls
How often the hockey-stick shape appears (24 months after)
Agreement between the two AI models (weighted kappa)
The 14 pre-registered tests (run once, 2026-09-26)
Leakage audit: could the AI guess the outcome tercile from the blinded dossier?

Agreement between the two AI models (weighted kappa)Rows

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